WWW Opinion Times

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

My Prediction

I've poured over the polls and thought through the trends. Like anyone else, I don't know exactly what's going to happen today. But I believe the results are becoming clear. Bush's linear trends are moving up in 37 states in polling from June until now. I all those 37 states, his trend has remained up or steady since 2 months ago. Kerry is trending up in only 17 states by my calculation. And most of those correlate with the Bush uptrend in the same state.:

If you would like a complete analysis in Excel format email me and I'll be glad to send it to you.

Bush: 300, 50.3%
Kerry: 235, 49.0%
Nader: 0.8%

States Bush: AL, AK, AZ AR, CO, FL, GA, HI, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA,, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WY

States Kerry: CA, CE, DE, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI

My analysis is based on 50% of undecideds breaking for Bush(most polls are showing above 55% undecided for Bush).

Here's the Electoral Map I come up with.

Pink: States I predict go to Bush with a margin of 5% or less
Red: States solidly in the Bush Column
Dark Blue: States Solidly going to Kerry
Medium Blue: States I predict go to Kerry with margin of 5% or less
Light Pink: States barely going to Bush
Light Blue: States barely going to Kerry

The last two categories are states which I predict go to the respective candidate based on my best intuitive, subjective knowledge. Who knows. I think MI, NH and PA can easily go to Bush. I just can't make the call. I am probably just unwilling to give up FL because the news from there is not encouraging lately. But the reporting of Early Voter turnout has primarily come from areas where ballot questions happened in 2000. Therefore, I think the information is biased against any positive news for the Bush campaign down there. Ralph Reed is running the Southeast for Bush/Cheney, so I think they have some good things happening we have not yet heard of.

Here is my Electoral Vote map projection Posted by Hello

There are four states which could go either way: OH, FL, PA, NH. I believe these are the only states in play. I feel confident OH and FL are going to Bush. If NH or NJ goes with him, we will be going to sleep at about 10:30pm EST. If not and if PA isn't close, it'll be a late night.