Polling Trends

Jay Reding has taken a look at the polling trends and come up with some interesting insights.

Recently, Steven Den Beste took a look at the overall poll trends in this race and spotted an overall trendline running through the data in this race. Den Beste is an engineer by trade, so he knows a thing or two about spotting mathematical trends.




What we see is a trendline in which George W. Bush consistantly leads John Kerry by a few percentage points each time. The Real Clear Politics poll average is a good measure as it smooths out some of the sampling bias in the polls and deals only with aggregate figures. Despite all the jitters in the data, the trendline remains consistant even with the polls that have come out subsequently to Den Beste’s analysis.

I am calling the race at 300-320 electoral votes. I believe that these numbers are beginning to bear this out, especially since the state polling numbers are increasingly favorable to Bush.